Энтеральные вирусные гепатиты в южном регионе Социалистической Республики Вьетнам

Aim: To study the hepatitis A (HAV) and hepatitis Е (HEV) prevalence in the Southern region of Vietnam based on the frequency analysis of the antibodies to hepatitis A and E viruses detection in the local population and groups at increased risk of infection.Materials and methods. Serological markers of enteral viral hepatitis were determined in blood serum samples from adults aged 18 to 65 years of three groups: conditionally healthy individuals (n = 397), HIV-infected (n = 316), and patients with chronic viral hepatitis (n = 268). The ELISA method was used for the qualitative detection of anti-HAV IgG, anti-HAV IgM, anti-HEV IgG, anti-HEV IgM.Results. When analyzing the prevalence of anti-HAV IgG in samples obtained from conditionally healthy, HIV-infected, and patients with chronic viral hepatitis, no differences were found between the groups. The incidence of anti-HAV IgG in the general group (n = 981) was 80.1%, in the absence of anti-HAV IgM. There were no gender-age differences in the frequency of anti-HAV IgG in the examined groups. Antibodies anti-HEV IgG in the groups of conditionally healthy, patients with chronic viral hepatitis, and HIV-infected were present in the samples in 36,2%, 33,2%, and 39,8% of cases, respectively. The prevalence of anti-HEV IgM in these groups was 3,27%, 4,1%, and 3,79%, respectively. In the general group (n = 981), anti-HEV IgG was detected in 36,6% of cases, anti-HEV IgM in 3,66%, which corresponds to the prevalence of antibodies to HEV in endemic regions.Conclusion. A high incidence of enteral viral hepatitis markers was shown in residents of South Vietnam, including the groups of conditionally healthy, patients with chronic viral hepatitis, and HIV-infected. There is an obvious need for further studies of the spread extent of hepatitis A and hepatitis E in the Socialist Republic of Vietnam using currently available highly sensitive diagnostic methods, including sequencing of the virus›s nucleotide sequences.Цель: изучить распространенность гепатита А (ГА) и гепатита Е (ГЕ) в Южном регионе Вьетнама на основании анализа частоты выявления антител к вирусам гепатитов А и Е у местного населения и группах повышенного риска инфицирования.Материалы и методы. Серологические маркеры энтеральных вирусных гепатитов определяли в образцах сыворотки крови взрослых от 18 до 65 лет 3 групп: условно-здоровых лиц (n=397), ВИЧ-инфицированных (n=316), пациентов с хроническим вирусным гепатитом (n=268). Использован метод ИФА для качественного выявления анти-ВГА IgG, анти-ВГА IgM, анти-ВГЕ IgG, анти-ВГE IgM.Результаты. При анализе распространенности анти-ВГА IgG в образцах, полученных от условно-здоровых, ВИЧ-инфицированных и пациентов с хроническими вирусными гепатитами, различий между груп пами не выявлено. Встречаемость анти-ВГА IgG в общей группе (n=981) составила 80,1% при отсутствии анти-ВГА IgM. Гендерно-возрастных различий по частоте антиВГА IgG в обследованных группах не выявлено. Анти-ВГЕ IgG в группах условно здоровых, больных хроническими вирусными гепатитами, ВИЧ-инфицированных присутствовали в образцах в 36,2%, 33,2% и 39,8% случаев соответственно. Распространенность анти-ВГЕ IgM в указанных группах составила 3,27%, 4,1% и 3,79% соответственно. В общей группе (n=981) анти-ВГЕ IgG выявили в 36,6% случаев, анти-ВГЕ IgM в 3,66% что соответствует распространенности антител к ВГЕ в эндемичных регионах.Заключение. Показана высокая встречаемость маркеров энтеральных вирусных гепатитов у жителей Южного Вьетнама, включая группы условно-здоровых, пациентов с хроническим вирусным гепатитом и ВИЧинфицированных. Очевидна необходимость дальнейших исследований масштабов распространения гепатита А и гепатита Е в Социалистической Республике Вьетнам с использованием доступных в настоящее время высокочувствительных диагностических методов, включая секвенирование нуклеотидных последовательностей вирусов.

Evaluation and improvement of the regulatory inference for large co-expression networks with limited sample size

Abstract Background Co-expression has been widely used to identify novel regulatory relationships using high throughput measurements, such as microarray and RNA-seq data. Evaluation studies on co-expression network analysis methods mostly focus on networks of small or medium size of up to a few hundred nodes. For large networks, simulated expression data usually consist of hundreds or thousands of profiles with different perturbations or knock-outs, which is uncommon in real experiments due to their cost and the amount of work required. Thus, the performances of co-expression network analysis methods on large co-expression networks consisting of a few thousand nodes, with only a small number of profiles with a single perturbation, which more accurately reflect normal experimental conditions, are generally uncharacterized and unknown. Methods We proposed a novel network inference methods based on Relevance Low order Partial Correlation (RLowPC). RLowPC method uses a two-step approach to select on the high-confidence edges first by reducing the search space by only picking the top ranked genes from an intial partial correlation analysis and, then computes the partial correlations in the confined search space by only removing the linear dependencies from the shared neighbours, largely ignoring the genes showing lower association. Results We selected six co-expression-based methods with good performance in evaluation studies from the literature: Partial correlation, PCIT, ARACNE, MRNET, MRNETB and CLR. The evaluation of these methods was carried out on simulated time-series data with various network sizes ranging from 100 to 3000 nodes. Simulation results show low precision and recall for all of the above methods for large networks with a small number of expression profiles. We improved the inference significantly by refinement of the top weighted edges in the pre-inferred partial correlation networks using RLowPC. We found improved performance by partitioning large networks into smaller co-expressed modules when assessing the method performance within these modules. Conclusions The evaluation results show that current methods suffer from low precision and recall for large co-expression networks where only a small number of profiles are available. The proposed RLowPC method effectively reduces the indirect edges predicted as regulatory relationships and increases the precision of top ranked predictions. Partitioning large networks into smaller highly co-expressed modules also helps to improve the performance of network inference methods. The RLowPC R package for network construction, refinement and evaluation is available at GitHub: https://github.com/wyguo/RLowPC

Gene Regulatory Network Reconstruction Using Bayesian Networks, the Dantzig Selector, the Lasso and Their Meta-Analysis

Modern technologies and especially next generation sequencing facilities are giving a cheaper access to genotype and genomic data measured on the same sample at once. This creates an ideal situation for multifactorial experiments designed to infer gene regulatory networks. The fifth “Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods” (DREAM5) challenges are aimed at assessing methods and associated algorithms devoted to the inference of biological networks. Challenge 3 on “Systems Genetics” proposed to infer causal gene regulatory networks from different genetical genomics data sets. We investigated a wide panel of methods ranging from Bayesian networks to penalised linear regressions to analyse such data, and proposed a simple yet very powerful meta-analysis, which combines these inference methods. We present results of the Challenge as well as more in-depth analysis of predicted networks in terms of structure and reliability. The developed meta-analysis was ranked first among the teams participating in Challenge 3A. It paves the way for future extensions of our inference method and more accurate gene network estimates in the context of genetical genomics

Cox process representation and inference for stochastic reaction-diffusion processes

Complex behaviour in many systems arises from the stochastic interactions of spatially distributed particles or agents. Stochastic reaction-diffusion processes are widely used to model such behaviour in disciplines ranging from biology to the social sciences, yet they are notoriously difficult to simulate and calibrate to observational data. Here we use ideas from statistical physics and machine learning to provide a solution to the inverse problem of learning a stochastic reaction-diffusion process from data. Our solution relies on a non-trivial connection between stochastic reaction-diffusion processes and spatio-temporal Cox processes, a well-studied class of models from computational statistics. This connection leads to an efficient and flexible algorithm for parameter inference and model selection. Our approach shows excellent accuracy on numeric and real data examples from systems biology and epidemiology. Our work provides both insights into spatio-temporal stochastic systems, and a practical solution to a long-standing problem in computational modelling

Search for Gravitational Waves from Intermediate Mass Binary Black Holes

We present the results of a weakly modeled burst search for gravitational waves from mergers of non-spinning intermediate mass black holes (IMBH) in the total mass range 100--450 solar masses and with the component mass ratios between 1:1 and 4:1. The search was conducted on data collected by the LIGO and Virgo detectors between November of 2005 and October of 2007. No plausible signals were observed by the search which constrains the astrophysical rates of the IMBH mergers as a function of the component masses. In the most efficiently detected bin centered on 88+88 solar masses, for non-spinning sources, the rate density upper limit is 0.13 per Mpc^3 per Myr at the 90% confidence level.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures: data for plots and archived public version at https://dcc.ligo.org/cgi-bin/DocDB/ShowDocument?docid=62326, see also the public announcement at http://www.ligo.org/science/Publication-S5IMBH

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors 2017 includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. METHODS: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting